Saturday, June 11, 2022
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Nobody Knows Anything, NYC Real Estate Edition




In the early days of the pandemic, lots of people (myself included) underestimated both how long Covid-19 would last, and its ultimate societal impact. Some made bold, even shocking forecasts.

The most eye-opening of the lot was the “New York City is dead forever.” The NY Post edition led to a Jerry Seinfeld response in the New York Times.

By now, you probably know that Seinfeld was right, and the naysayers were wrong.

What you may not know is just how right Seinfeld actually was. The city may have suffered one of its largest declines in the first stage of the pandemic, but once vaccines became more widely available, it had one of the fastest rebounds.

For the details, see this fascinating piece in Bloomberg City Lab: “More People Are Moving to Manhattan Than Before the Pandemic.” It is an amazing set of data analyses and infographics about the record rise in demand for Manhattan Apartments.

Some bullet points:

-Manhattan Lost the Most Population—and Then Gained the Most Back

-Median home prices have shot up everywhere. In Manhattan they have climbed back to pre-pandemic levels

-New York City’s rent prices, which are up close to 10% since before the pandemic

-Median rent is up 32% across the borough from the Covid lows

-Suburban areas around NYC are still competitive real estate with inventory running at half of normal rates.

Go read the entire thing . . .



See also:
New York City is dead forever, by James Altucher (NY Post, August 17, 2020)

Jerry Seinfeld: So You Think New York Is ‘Dead’ (It’s not.) (New York Times, August 24, 2020)


Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016)

Nobody Knows Anything, Kentucky Derby Edition (May 9, 2022)

Nobody Knows Anything, NFP edition (June 5, 2020)

Forecasting & Prediction Discussions




More People Are Moving to Manhattan Than Before the Pandemic
By Sarah Holder
Graphics and data by Marie Patino
CityLab, June 8, 2022





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