The HPI’s previous biggest fall was in July 2010 (1.3%) but last month’s data was exceptional as all but three of the CMAs surveyed posted a decline.
The index peaked in May 2022 and is down more than 4% since with Hamilton (-10.5%), Halifax (-8.7%), and Toronto (-8.3%) the biggest drags.
The monthly declines were led by Hamilton (-5.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-3.8%), Halifax (-3.6%) and Toronto (-3.5%), with gains for Calgary (+1.3%), Edmonton (+2.8%), and Lethbridge, which is not covered in the composite CMA (+2.6%).
Analysts at the index expect it to be 10-15% lower than its peak by the end of 2023, assuming a peak 4% policy rate from the Bank of Canada which is reduced in the second half of next year.
A recent RE/MAX Canada report shows that there are still pockets of price gains even within wider market declines.
