Latest figures today from ONS show that UK gross domestic product (GDP) in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022 was estimated to have grown by 0.1%.
The growth estimate contrasts with earlier predictions of no growth and suggests the UK economy has so far avoided recession.
Technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage.
There was also a revised fall of 0.1% in the previous quarter, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022. This was previously estimated as a 0.2% decline.
While the GDP growth will be seen as positive the rate of growth is seen by most experts as anaemic.
ONS data shows that the services sector grew by 0.1% and the construction sector grew by 1.3%, while production sector growth was flat in Quarter 4 2022.
Despite the slight improvement in GDP, the level of real GDP in Quarter 4 2022 is estimated to be still 0.6% below where it was pre-Coronavirus at Quarter 4 2019, although this is a revision upwards from the previous estimate of 0.8% below.
Rising cost of living factors were a ‘deflator’ on GDP with the GDP implied deflator up by an upwardly revised 7.3% in the year to Quarter 4 2022.
Despite the challenges, households appear to have been keen to save with the household savings ratio up to 9.3% in Quarter 4 2022, from 8.9% in the previous quarter.
Real households’ disposable income (RHDI) increased by 1.3% in the quarter after four consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Estimates for September 2022 were affected by the bank holiday for the State Funeral of the Queen.
